Covert Operations and Allegations Against India — Nijjar, Pannun & UPSC Notes (UPSC International Relations)

Since 2023, India has faced a series of allegations of extraterritorial covert activity from close partners — Canada (Nijjar killing), the United States (Pannun plot), and earlier cases in the UK, Europe and Gulf. The pattern has tested India's most consequential strategic partnerships and become a live UPSC GS-II theme on India's foreign relations, diaspora, terrorism and diplomatic protocol.

Why this topic matters

• Challenges India's image as a credible, principled rising power.
• Tests the depth of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing relationship with India.
• Has implications for diaspora policy, Khalistani extremism, visa and trade talks.
• Raises questions about covert doctrine and democratic accountability at home.

Cases in the public domain

Hardeep Singh Nijjar killing (Canada, June 2023)

• Nijjar, a Canadian citizen and chief of the proscribed Khalistan Tiger Force, was shot dead outside a gurdwara in Surrey, British Columbia on 18 June 2023.
• On 18 September 2023, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau told Parliament there were "credible allegations" of a potential link between agents of the Indian government and the killing. India rejected the charge as "absurd and motivated."
• Tit-for-tat diplomat expulsions followed. Visa services for Canadians were temporarily suspended.
• In October 2024, Canada named Indian diplomats, including the High Commissioner, as "persons of interest". India expelled Canadian diplomats in return.

Gurpatwant Singh Pannun plot (United States, Nov 2023)

• The US Department of Justice unsealed an indictment against Nikhil Gupta, accusing him of conspiring — at the behest of a senior Indian official — to assassinate Pannun, a US-Canadian national and founder of Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) (proscribed in India).
• India set up a high-level inquiry committee in November 2023; a former RAW officer, Vikash Yadav, was charged by US prosecutors in October 2024.
• Nikhil Gupta was extradited from Czechia to the US in June 2024.
• India has maintained the policy of targeted assassinations is "not government policy" but has committed to investigate specific leads.

Other cases referenced in reporting

• Alleged attempted kidnap of fugitive businessman Mehul Choksi from Antigua in 2021.
• Kulbhushan Jadhav case (2016) — India argues Jadhav is a former naval officer, Pakistan calls him a spy; ICJ ruling secured consular access.
• Qatar 8 — eight former Indian naval officers convicted of espionage in Qatar (2023), later released after intervention.
• Reporting in The Washington Post, The Guardian and The Intercept has alleged a wider pattern of operations across the UK, Germany, Italy and Thailand — all denied by the Ministry of External Affairs.

The Five Eyes dimension

The Five Eyes is an intelligence-sharing alliance of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US. Canadian allegations were reportedly based on signals and human intelligence shared within Five Eyes channels.

• Trust in both directions has frayed. Canada accuses India of operating on its soil; India accuses Canada of harbouring designated terrorists and allowing anti-India rhetoric at protests.
• The US indictment's precision (names, wire transfers, aliases) suggests deeper electronic penetration than India has publicly acknowledged.
• UK and Australia have been more cautious; both retain broad India partnerships (AUKUS adjacency, trade talks).

Historical mistrust

• The 2008 warning about the Mumbai 26/11 threat, in which the US did not disclose that the source was LeT operative David Coleman Headley, illustrates a pattern where intelligence cooperation has been partial and conditional.

India-Canada bilateral fallout

• Visa services to Canadian nationals temporarily suspended (Sept-Oct 2023).
• Expulsion of senior diplomats on both sides in October 2024.
• Trade talks paused; Early Progress Trade Agreement (EPTA) on hold.
• Canadian travel advisories on India; Indian advisories on Canada.
• Economic cost remains low — bilateral trade is ~US$9 billion, mainly Canadian pulses, potash, and Indian IT services — but the diaspora and political costs are high.

India's defence and framing

India's public position combines flat denial of policy-level sanction, willingness to investigate specifics, and counter-charges:

• Canada is alleged to harbour terrorists designated under UAPA — Arshdeep Dalla, Lakhbir Singh Landa and others.
• Referendums and parades glorifying Khalistani leaders and the 1985 Air India Kanishka bombing are held openly in Canadian cities.
• Indo-Canadian gangster-Khalistani nexus with Pakistan's ISI is cited by Indian intelligence.
• India argues Canada's diaspora politics (Sikh vote bank) drives the confrontational posture.

Impact on India's global standing

Strategic

• Risks straining the India-US partnership — "most consequential of the century" in both governments' framing.
• Creates hedging incentives for smaller states (Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Maldives) to demand more transparency.
• Complicates BRICS and Global South diplomacy — de-dollarisation and UNSC reform are harder when trust with Western partners erodes.

Reputational

• Tarnishes the Vishwa Bandhu / Vishwaguru narrative of a principled rising power.
• Invites scrutiny from human rights organisations and European parliamentarians.
• Fuels transnational repression narratives in Western media.

Institutional

• Raises questions on parliamentary oversight of R&AW and the National Security Council.
• Civil servants and foreign service face awkward questioning about the doctrine of "internal handling" of dissidents abroad.

What covert action looks like — conceptually

• Covert operations are defined broadly as activities where a state's role is meant to be plausibly deniable.
• Extraterritorial targeted killings are a particular, extreme category practised historically by several states (US drone strikes, Israel's Mossad, Russia's FSB in UK, Saudi Arabia's Khashoggi case).
• International law treats killings on foreign soil without host-state consent as violations of sovereignty and, potentially, extrajudicial killing under human rights law.

Latest developments (2024-26)

• Oct 2024: Canada names Indian diplomats as "persons of interest" in Nijjar case; six Indian diplomats expelled; India expels six Canadian counterparts.
• Oct 2024: US DoJ formally indicts Vikash Yadav (ex-RAW officer) in Pannun plot.
• June 2024: Nikhil Gupta extradited from Czechia to the US.
• Nov 2024: India's inquiry committee reportedly submits interim findings; specific actions pending.
• Jan 2025: Trump 2.0 transition — posture on the Pannun case is pragmatic; bilateral negotiations continue.
• G20 Rio (Nov 2024): India avoided direct engagement on the issue; G20 dynamics showed workable coordination despite bilateral strain.
• Red Sea, Israel-Hamas, Russia-Ukraine wars reinforced mutual dependence — naval cooperation (Red Sea), tech partnerships (ICET), Ukraine diplomacy.
• India-Maldives reset (Oct 2024) suggests India is adjusting regional diplomacy and recalibrating capacity for coercive posturing.
• UK and Australia retain active India partnerships; New Zealand and Ireland have been more critical.

Way forward for India

1. Consistent doctrine across friendly countries — avoid double standards (tough on Canada, cooperative with US).
2. Credible domestic inquiry — parliamentary oversight, transparency on findings.
3. Legal extradition pathways — demand reciprocal Canadian action on UAPA-designated fugitives.
4. Diaspora engagement — isolate violent extremism without alienating the broader Sikh diaspora.
5. Track-1.5 and backchannel diplomacy — resolve quietly where possible; avoid media-first positions.
6. Multilateral engagement — through Interpol, UN bodies, and FATF on transnational organised crime.
7. Clarify doctrine — publicly disavow extrajudicial killings abroad as state policy and codify this.

UPSC Relevance

GS-II: “Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests; Indian diaspora.” GS-III: Internal security; linkages between external actors and challenges to internal security.

Probable questions

• Discuss the implications of extraterritorial covert allegations on India's foreign relations and global standing. (15 marks)
• How does the Khalistan issue straddle India's diaspora policy, internal security, and bilateral ties with Canada, the UK and the US? (15 marks)
• What institutional reforms are needed for intelligence oversight in a democracy like India? (10 marks)

Prelims trigger words — Nijjar case, Pannun indictment, Five Eyes, Sikhs for Justice, Khalistan Tiger Force, UAPA, Air India Kanishka bombing, Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.

The real test for India is not whether it can survive these allegations — it will — but whether it can use the episode to professionalise oversight, tighten legal doctrine and rebuild trust, without undermining the counter-terror tools that every major democracy uses.