We need to foster a Middle Power approach

Why in news?

France’s Minister for European Affairs called for India-France ‘middle power coalitions’ to hedge against U.S.-China uncertainty and uphold multilateralism.

UPSC Relevance – 

Mains GS2: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India; effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests; important international institutions and their mandate.

Who is a middle power?

There is no fixed definition. Scholars use three broad lenses:

• Capability: States with significant economic, military and diplomatic weight, below the superpowers but above most others.
• Behaviour: States that prefer multilateral solutions, coalition-building and mediation. 
• Identity: States that see themselves, and are seen by others, as bridge-builders.
• Traditional middle powers: Canada, Australia, Norway, Sweden, Netherlands. Mostly Western, aligned with the U.S.-led order.
• Emerging middle powers: India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Mexico. Some analysts call them ‘swing states’ because their choices can tilt global outcomes.

Why middle powers are rising today

1. Changes at the top of the system

• U.S.-China rivalry: A sharpening contest in trade, technology and security pushes other countries to avoid choosing sides and keep options open.
• Russia’s war in Ukraine: A permanent UNSC member violating the sovereignty of a neighbour has weakened the basic norms of the UN Charter.

2. Paralysis of multilateral institutions

• UN Security Council: Repeated vetoes on Ukraine and West Asia have left it unable to act.
• WTO: The Appellate Body has been non-functional since December 2019 as the U.S. blocked appointments.
• Outdated representation: Bretton Woods institutions and the UNSC still reflect 1945 power realities, not today’s economic weight of the Global South.

3. Weaponisation of interdependence

• Economic coercion: Sanctions, export controls, secondary tariffs and control over payment systems are now used as weapons. Middle powers want to reduce exposure to any single power.
• Supply chain diversification: ‘China plus one’, friend-shoring and de-risking give countries like India, Vietnam and Mexico a bigger economic role.

4. Growing capacity of the Global South

• Economic weight: Emerging economies now account for the larger part of world GDP in purchasing power terms.
• Diplomatic confidence: India’s G20 presidency, the Voice of the Global South Summits and an expanded BRICS show more willingness to set the agenda.
• Mediation role: Gulf states, Türkiye and India have become channels between warring parties.

5. New global problems no single power can solve

• Climate change, pandemics, AI governance, cyber security and debt crises need wide coalitions, not just great power deals.

How middle powers can strengthen a rules-based order

• Bridge-builders: They can talk to both sides. India’s G20 New Delhi Declaration (2023) reached consensus despite deep divisions over Ukraine and  Türkiye’s role in the Black Sea Grain Initiative show their value as trusted channels.
• Norm entrepreneurs: They can create new rules where great powers are unwilling. Examples include the landmine ban, the Rome Statute of the ICC and the Responsibility to Protect idea (from a Canada-backed commission in 2001).
• Saving institutions from collapse: Stop-gap arrangements like the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA) at the WTO keep the rules working until reform is possible.
• Pushing reform: The G4 (India, Brazil, Germany, Japan) push for UNSC expansion; demands for IMF quota and World Bank reform; the African Union’s G20 membership.
• Building new institutions and public goods: International Solar Alliance, Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, and India’s Digital Public Infrastructure model shared with other countries.
• Rules for new domains: AI, space and cyber. India and France co-chaired the AI Action Summit in Paris (February 2025), and India hosted the AI Impact Summit in 2026.
• Open trade by example: Agreements like the India-EU FTA show that trade can grow through rules and negotiation, not coercion.
• Peacekeeping and humanitarian help: India is among the largest contributors to UN peacekeeping; it also acts as a first responder in its region (Operation Dost in Türkiye, 2023).

Limits and challenges

• Not a single bloc: Middle powers differ in values, interests and regional rivalries (India-China, Saudi Arabia-Iran). Coalitions are issue-based and often short-lived.
• Dependence on great powers: European security still leans heavily on NATO and the U.S., even though France has its own nuclear deterrent; India still sources key defence items from Russia and technology from the U.S.
• Pressure and coercion: Middle powers face secondary tariffs and sanctions threats, as India did over Russian oil imports.
• Double standards: Rules applied strictly to some and ignored for others (as the interviewer’s question on Iran shows) weaken the credibility of a ‘rules-based order’. Many in the Global South see it as a Western-made order.
• Disagreement within: India and France differ on Ukraine; India avoids condemning Russia, while Europe seeks India’s pressure on Moscow.
• Limited capacity: Middle powers lack the military reach and money to enforce rules on their own.

Way forward for India 

• Issue-based coalitions: Work with like-minded partners on climate, AI, supply chains and maritime security rather than forming fixed blocs.
• Consistent rules: Middle powers will be credible only if they call out violations equally, whoever commits them.
• Reform from within: Use platforms like G20 and BRICS to push for UNSC, WTO and IMF reform instead of building rival orders.
• Economic resilience: Diversified supply chains, trade agreements and domestic manufacturing reduce exposure to coercion.
• Global South first: Bring the concerns of developing countries (debt, climate finance, technology access) to the centre of global rules.

The rise of middle powers reflects both the weakening of the post-1945 order and an effort to renew it. If they act together and with consistency, they can keep the world from sliding into a contest of raw power. India, with its size, democratic credentials and ties with all sides, is well placed to lead this effort.

Practice MCQ

Q1. Consider the following pairs:

How many of the pairs given above are correctly matched?

(a) Only one

(b) Only two

(c) All three

(d) None

Answer: (b). Pair 2 is incorrect. The G4, which seeks permanent UNSC membership, consists of India, Brazil, Germany and Japan.

Mains Practice Question

Q. “The rise of middle power coalitions reflects both the decline of the post-1945 order and an attempt to renew it.” Discuss the factors behind the growing role of middle powers and examine how India can use such coalitions to promote a fair, rules-based world order. (15 marks, 250 words)