Discuss the political developments in Maldives in the last two years. Should they be of any cause of concern to India?

Between 2011 and 2013 the Maldives passed through its most turbulent phase since its democratic transition of 2008 — turbulence that mattered directly to India, given the archipelago's position astride Indian Ocean sea lanes.

Key Political Developments

• In February 2012, President Mohamed Nasheed resigned after weeks of protests and a police mutiny — he called it a coup — and Vice-President Mohammed Waheed took over.
• Nasheed then faced prosecution over the detention of a judge and, in February 2013, took refuge in the Indian High Commission in Male for eleven days.
• In December 2012, the Waheed government abruptly terminated GMR's roughly USD 500 million Male airport contract, then India's largest investment in the country.
• The Supreme Court annulled the first round of the September 2013 presidential election; after repeated delays, Abdulla Yameen defeated Nasheed in the November run-off.

Why This Concerns India

• Instability creates openings for China and for radical networks in a state close to the crucial sea lanes of communication and India's island territories.
• The GMR episode damaged investor confidence and signalled an anti-India drift in Male.
• Democratic backsliding weakened SAARC and India's credibility as the neighbourhood's first responder — a role it played in Operation Cactus (1988).

The 2012–13 turbulence previewed the India–China contest that later produced the 'India Out' campaign; patient engagement, capacity-building and respect for Maldivian democratic institutions under Neighbourhood First remain India's best response.