India’s fiscal deficit glide path under the FRBM Act has been repeatedly reset since the pandemic. Examine the consolidation roadmap, the role of the proposed debt-anchor, and the structural risks that threaten the 4.4% target.
Subtopic: Economy · Fiscal policy
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Introduction: Union Budget 2025-26 pegs the Centre's fiscal deficit at 4.4% of GDP, down from a pandemic peak of 9.2% (2020-21); FRBM Act 2003 originally targeted 3%.
Body: 1) FRBM trajectory and N.K. Singh Committee debt-anchor (Centre 40%, States 20%, General 60%). 2) Composition risks — capex push (₹11.21 lakh crore), subsidy stickiness, off-budget liabilities. 3) State finances and 16th Finance Commission window. Cite RBI State Finances 2024-25.
Way forward: Operationalise an independent Fiscal Council (NK Singh recommendation); shift FRBM to debt-to-GDP anchor; align Centre-state borrowing under Article 293(3).
- Fiscal deficit target 4.4% of GDP for FY26 (Union Budget 2025-26)
- Debt-to-GDP: Centre ~58%, General Government ~83% (RBI FSR 2024)
- FRBM Act 2003 — escape clause invoked in 2020-21
- N.K. Singh Committee (2017) recommended 60% debt anchor by FY23
- Capex outlay ₹11.21 lakh crore; effective capex ₹15.48 lakh crore
- 16th Finance Commission (Arvind Panagariya) period 2026-31
- Article 293(3) — state borrowing consent
- Economic Survey 2024-25 flags revenue buoyancy and tax-GDP ratio (~11.7%)