India’s defence dependence on Russia fell from 70 percent in 2011-15 to 40 percent in 2021-25 per SIPRI, while Russia became India’s top crude supplier at about 35 percent. Examine the changing texture of India-Russia ties.

Introduction:

The India-Russia 'Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership' (2010) re-extended its 2001 friendship treaty during the Putin-Xi May 2026 Beijing meeting, even as India's defence dependence on Russia fell from 70 percent (2011-15) to 40 percent (2021-25) per SIPRI 2025, while Russia became India's top crude supplier at about 35 percent in FY24.

Defence diversification: SIPRI 2025 records France at 29 percent and Israel at 15 percent rising; the US at 11 percent; Indo-Russian collaboration continues through five contracted S-400 squadrons (three delivered, two delayed by the Ukraine war), the BrahMos joint venture, the AK-203 Korwa joint venture, and Su-30 MKI upgrades. The diversification is real, not rhetorical.

Energy pivot: Russian crude rose from 2 percent (2021) to 35.9 percent (FY24), peaking near 2.3 million b/d in early May 2026; after the Rosneft and Lukoil sanctions of 21 November 2025, the share fell to 21.2 percent by January 2026. India's basket now spans 40 countries — diversification under coercion has accelerated structural rebalancing.

Strategic limits: Russia's deepening dependence on China, the Putin-Xi May 2026 visit re-extending the 2001 treaty, and the RIC trilateral's dormancy since Galwan 2020 narrow Moscow's strategic value. Russia's defence-industrial base is over-committed to Ukraine; spares delays affect Indian fleet readiness.

Way forward / Conclusion:

Continue defence diversification with FRAM Indian-design through GE F414 and AMCA Mk2, retain Russia for spares and overhaul, push rupee-rouble trade settlement, and treat Russia as one card in multi-alignment, not the ace.