India’s demographic dividend is projected to close around 2046 even as the Sample Registration System 2024 reports a TFR of 2.0. Examine the implications for human-resource policy and skilling.
Subtopic: Social Justice · Human Resources
How to structure your answer
Introduction: India's working-age (15-59) population peaks around 2041 and the demographic dividend window closes around 2046, when the over-60 cohort overtakes those under 14, per UNFPA 2023 and SRS 2024 data.
Body: Three dimensions — (i) Demographic shift: TFR fell from 2.2 (SRS 2020) to 2.0 (SRS 2024), already below replacement; southern states have TFR below 1.7; (ii) Skills gap: India Skills Report 2024 — only 51.3 percent of graduates are employable; PMKVY 4.0 has trained around 1.4 crore but placement remains under 25 percent; (iii) Policy levers: National Apprenticeship Promotion Scheme, ITI revamp (Rs 60,000 crore plan announced in Union Budget 2025-26), Skill India Digital Hub, and Atmanirbhar Skilled Employee-Employer Mapping (ASEEM) portal.
Way forward / Conclusion: Industry-linked dual-system apprenticeships (German model), align skilling with PLI-anchored sectors, expand female ITI seats, and integrate skilling outcomes into the 16th Finance Commission's grants framework.
Written within the word limit
133 words · target 150 words · 9 min
Introduction: India's demographic dividend — the working-age 15-59 share — peaks around 2041 and closes around 2046, when the over-60 cohort overtakes those under 14 per UNFPA's India Ageing Report 2023 and SRS 2024.
Body: Three dimensions frame the policy stakes. First, demographic shift — TFR fell from 2.2 (SRS 2020) to 2.0 (SRS 2024), below replacement; southern States are below 1.7. Second, skills gap — the India Skills Report 2024 records only 51.3 percent of graduates as employable; PMKVY 4.0 has trained 1.4 crore but placement remains under 25 percent, mirroring the Sharada Prasad Committee (2016) diagnosis. Third, policy levers — the National Apprenticeship Promotion Scheme, ITI revamp (Rs 60,000 crore plan in Union Budget 2025-26), Skill India Digital Hub and ASEEM portal aim to close the chasm.
Conclusion: Industry-linked dual apprenticeships on the German model, align skilling with PLI sectors, expand female ITI seats and integrate outcomes into the 16th Finance Commission grants.
What an examiner expects to see
- Dividend window narrows by 2046; UNFPA 2023 projects 20.8 percent 60-plus population
- TFR fell from 2.2 (SRS 2020) to 2.0 (SRS 2024) — at replacement level
- Southern states (Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka) TFR below 1.7
- India Skills Report 2024 — 51.3 percent of graduates employable
- PMKVY 4.0 trained about 1.4 crore; placement under 25 percent
- Union Budget 2025-26 announced Rs 60,000 crore ITI revamp scheme
- PLFS 2023-24 youth (15-29) unemployment 10.2 percent
- Skill India Digital Hub, ASEEM portal, NAPS for apprenticeships
Concrete cases, schemes and judgments
- Sample Registration System 2024 (RGI)
- PMKVY 4.0 and Skill India Mission
- National Apprenticeship Promotion Scheme (NAPS)
- Skill India Digital Hub
- India Skills Report 2024 (Wheebox)
- Demographic Dividend Closing Window — Anantam IAS