India’s updated NDC commits to 45% reduction in emissions intensity by 2030 and net-zero by 2070. Critically evaluate the LT-LEDS pathway and the role of CBAM in shaping India’s transition.

Introduction:

India's updated Nationally Determined Contribution, submitted to UNFCCC in August 2022, commits to 45% reduction in emissions intensity of GDP by 2030 (over 2005), 50% non-fossil electric capacity by 2030, and net-zero by 2070. India's Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), tabled at COP-27 in November 2022, sets the structural pathway.

LT-LEDS pillars: Low-carbon electricity (500 GW non-fossil by 2030, MNRE), integrated transport (FAME-III at ₹10,900 crore, PM E-DRIVE 2024-26), urban planning aligned with City Action Plans, hard-to-abate decarbonisation via the Green Hydrogen Mission (₹19,744 crore, 5 MMT by 2030), CO2 removal through afforestation under the Green India Mission, and equitable transition financing of $10 trillion by 2070 (CEEW estimate).

CBAM implications: The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, definitive from 1 January 2026, covers steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity. Indian exports of $8.5 bn (CRISIL 2024) face a carbon levy of 20-35%; the steel sector alone could see margin erosion of 4-6%. The Carbon Credit Trading Scheme 2023 and Indian Carbon Market under the Energy Conservation Amendment Act 2022 must be CBAM-compatible.

Equity concerns: India's per-capita CO2 (1.9 tonnes) is one-third of the global average. Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and the Paris Article 9.1 climate-finance pledge of $100 bn remain unmet ($83 bn delivered, OECD 2023).

Way forward:

MoEFCC and MNRE should notify ICM Phase-1 by FY27, file WTO disputes on CBAM under Article XX, scale Green Hydrogen capacity to 1 MMT by 2027, and operationalise the Loss-and-Damage Fund commitments agreed at COP-28.