GS Paper 1 10 marks · 150w 9 min Hard
“The retreat of Himalayan glaciers is a slow-onset climatic disaster with cascading consequences.” Critically analyse.
Subtopic: Cryosphere change in the Himalaya
How to structure your answer
Introduction → Why it qualifies as a slow-onset disaster → Cascading consequences → The counter-view → Conclusion
Detailed model answer
231 words · target 150 words · 9 min
The Hindu Kush Himalaya holds the largest body of ice outside the poles and feeds ten major river systems supporting nearly two billion people. Its glaciers are retreating at an accelerating rate, and the losses accumulate quietly until thresholds are crossed.
Why it qualifies as a slow-onset disaster
- No single impact moment: Unlike an earthquake, damage accrues over decades, so it never triggers emergency response.
- Measured and accelerating: ICIMOD assessments record substantially faster mass loss after 2010 than before.
- Elevation-dependent warming: The high Himalaya warms faster than the global average, and black carbon deposition lowers albedo and speeds melting.
Cascading consequences
- Hydrological reversal: Flows rise temporarily as ice melts, then decline permanently, threatening the Indus and Ganga basins in the lean season.
- GLOF risk: Expanding moraine-dammed lakes threaten downstream valleys, as the Chamoli disaster of 2021 showed.
- Agriculture and hydropower: Irrigation dependability and run-of-river generation both weaken.
- Biodiversity and permafrost: Species shift upslope and thawing permafrost destabilises slopes and roads.
- Transboundary friction: Shared basins make water-sharing arrangements harder to sustain.
The counter-view
- Debris-covered and Karakoram glaciers show anomalous stability, so retreat is not uniform.
- Snowmelt and monsoon rainfall, not glacier melt, dominate annual flow in the Ganga, so the crisis is concentrated in the Indus and in the lean season.
The threat is real but unevenly distributed. Basin-specific monitoring, GLOF early-warning systems and demand-side water management matter more than a single Himalaya-wide narrative.
What an examiner expects to see
- No single impact moment: Unlike an earthquake, damage accrues over decades, so it never triggers emergency response
- Measured and accelerating: ICIMOD assessments record substantially faster mass loss after 2010 than before
- Elevation-dependent warming: The high Himalaya warms faster than the global average, and black carbon deposition lowers albedo and speeds melting
- Hydrological reversal: Flows rise temporarily as ice melts, then decline permanently, threatening the Indus and Ganga basins in the lean season
- GLOF risk: Expanding moraine-dammed lakes threaten downstream valleys, as the Chamoli disaster of 2021 showed
- Agriculture and hydropower: Irrigation dependability and run-of-river generation both weaken
- Biodiversity and permafrost: Species shift upslope and thawing permafrost destabilises slopes and roads
Terminology to weave into the answer
ICIMODGLOFThe Hindu Kush Himalaya