“The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of a China, that is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union.” Explain.

Introduction

Graham Allison's 'Thucydides Trap' frames US–China rivalry as a ruling power confronting a rising one. American strategists increasingly regard China as a more formidable challenger than the Soviet Union ever was.

Why China is more challenging than the USSR

• Economic weight: the Soviet economy never exceeded roughly 40 per cent of America's; China's is about two-thirds at market exchange rates, larger in PPP terms, and accounts for close to 30 per cent of global manufacturing.
• Interdependence: bilateral goods trade of nearly 600 billion dollars binds American firms, farmers and consumers to China — containment now imposes costs on the container, unlike the largely autarkic USSR.
• Technology: China leads or competes at the frontier in 5G (Huawei), electric vehicles, solar, batteries and AI, prompting US export controls and the CHIPS and Science Act — a race the USSR never seriously ran outside the military sphere.
• Military and institutional reach: the world's largest navy by hull count, hypersonics, plus the BRI, AIIB and RCEP — China reshapes the existing order from within rather than leading a separate bloc.
• Alliance dilemma: most US partners, from the EU to ASEAN, count China as a top trading partner, making Cold War-style bloc discipline impossible.

The contest is therefore systemic — economic, technological and normative, not merely military — demanding sustained competition combined with selective engagement rather than simple containment.