US secondary tariffs raised duties on Indian goods to 50 percent in August 2025 over Russian-oil purchases before the 6 February 2026 framework rolled them back to 18 percent. Examine how this episode tested India’s strategic autonomy.

Introduction:

India's strategic autonomy was stress-tested when the United States imposed a 25 percent reciprocal tariff plus a 25 percent penalty on Indian goods in August 2025 — taking duties to 50 percent — tied to a July 2025 executive order monitoring Russian-oil buyers. The 6 February 2026 framework rolled tariffs back to 18 percent without an official Indian concession on Russian crude.

Pressure metrics: India-US goods trade reached $129.2 billion in 2024 with a US deficit of $45.7 billion; tariffs hurt because the United States is India's largest goods export market at 18 percent of exports. Engineering goods, gems and jewellery and pharma — high-employment sectors — bore the brunt.

Indian counterplay: Russian crude share rose from 2 percent (2021) to 35.9 percent (FY24); after Rosneft and Lukoil sanctions (21 November 2025), it fell to 21.2 percent by January 2026. India diversified imports from 40 countries, signed the India-EU FTA (27 January 2026), accelerated UPI internationalisation and used the Munich Security Conference (14 February 2026) to restate strategic autonomy — Jaishankar invoked Article 51's non-alignment lineage.

Framework rollback: The 6 February 2026 framework recovered baseline access without scripting Indian alignment, vindicating non-aligned multi-alignment over coercion-driven choices. CAATSA waiver clarity, however, remains legislatively absent.

Way forward / Conclusion:

Diversify the oil basket beyond Russia, conclude the bilateral trade pact with sequenced market access, push rupee internationalisation rather than de-dollarisation, and harden CAATSA waiver clarity through US legislation — converting the episode's lesson into durable policy.