India’s updated NDC commits to a 45% reduction in emissions intensity by 2030 and net-zero by 2070. Critically evaluate the LT-LEDS pathway and the role of CBAM in shaping India’s transition.

Introduction:

India submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution in August 2022 — a 45% reduction in emissions intensity of GDP by 2030 over 2005, 50% non-fossil installed capacity by 2030, and net-zero by 2070; the Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy was released at COP27 (Sharm El-Sheikh, November 2022); the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism enters its definitive phase from 1 January 2026.

LT-LEDS pillars:

The LT-LEDS rests on six pillars — low-carbon electricity expansion, transport electrification, urban systems transition, hard-to-abate industry decarbonisation, CO2 removal pathways, and climate-finance mobilisation. It rejects sector-specific net-zero pathways but signals technology-neutral trajectories anchored in equity.

CBAM impact:

CBAM covers cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, hydrogen, and electricity — with ~US$8 billion of Indian exports exposed. CBAM levies a carbon price at the EU border equivalent to ETS, eroding the cost advantage of carbon-intensive Indian exports and pushing decarbonisation timelines forward.

Domestic instruments:

The Carbon Credit Trading Scheme was notified on 28 June 2023, transitioning India from PAT to a cap-and-trade architecture. The Green Credit Programme Rules (October 2023) reward voluntary environmental action. The National Green Hydrogen Mission (₹19,744 crore, January 2023) targets 5 MMT by 2030. Article 6.2 ITMO transactions under Paris remain a financing lever.

Way forward / Conclusion:

Operationalise the CCTS compliance phase by 2026, negotiate CBAM equivalence via the India-EU FTA, scale Green Hydrogen production, and reaffirm CBDR-RC at COP31 to defend developmental space under MoEFCC.