The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a global sea level rise of about one metre by AD 2100. What would be its impact on India and the other countries in the Indian Ocean region?

Introduction: A roughly one-metre rise in sea level by 2100, as projected under high-emission scenarios, would reshape the densely settled, low-lying coasts and islands of the Indian Ocean region, where millions of people live and work within a few metres of the sea.

Body:

• Impact on India: a coastline of about 7,500 km and major river deltas are exposed. Cities like Mumbai, Chennai, and Kolkata face more frequent flooding and storm surge; the Sundarbans and other mangroves erode; saline intrusion damages farmland and drinking-water aquifers; and fishing communities are displaced. The Lakshadweep and other low-lying islands risk partial submergence, loss of freshwater lenses, and damage to their fragile coral ecosystems.
• Indian Ocean states: atoll nations such as the Maldives, lying barely a metre above sea level, face an existential threat to their territory; Bangladesh's Ganga-Brahmaputra delta could lose large tracts and displace millions; and Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and the East African coast face shoreline retreat, loss of beaches, and inundation of coastal infrastructure.
• Cross-cutting effects: losses to ports, tourism, and fisheries; large-scale climate-driven migration and displacement; damaged coral reefs and coastal wetlands that naturally buffer storms; and heightened geopolitical tension over shared freshwater, fisheries, and maritime territory between neighbouring states.

Conclusion: Coastal protection, restored mangroves, integrated coastal-zone management, early-warning systems, and regional cooperation through bodies like IORA are vital to manage this shared and rising threat.