The Northeast insurgency landscape has shifted dramatically with the AFSPA rollback and the Manipur ethnic conflict. Critically examine the security architecture and the policy choices required.

Introduction:

MHA records show the AFSPA 1958 "disturbed area" footprint has been cut by 70% from 2014 levels by 2024; the Manipur ethnic conflict since 3 May 2023 has displaced ~60,000 people and seen 200+ deaths; the Free Movement Regime with Myanmar was suspended in February 2024.

Security architecture:

The Northeast is held by Assam Rifles, state police, Intelligence Bureau, NIA, and the National Security Advisor's coordination cell, supported by the Bilateral Liaison Mechanism with Myanmar. AFSPA rollback has accompanied historical peace accords — Mizo (1986), Bru-Reang resettlement (2020), and the Naga Framework Agreement (2015) — though final settlements remain elusive.

Manipur drivers:

The Meitei demand for ST status, the cross-border Kuki-Zo-Hmar links into Myanmar's Chin state, post-coup arms inflows, and the methamphetamine economy combine to fuel the conflict. Relief camps in Imphal Valley and Churachandpur reflect deep ethnic segregation; the Article 6A (Assam Accord 1985) constitutional challenge before SC layers federal complexity.

FMR suspension and border fencing:

The 2024 suspension of FMR and the announced 1,643 km Myanmar border fence raise human-mobility and refugee-management questions, given India's non-ratification of the 1951 Refugee Convention. NLFT, ULFA-I, and NSCN factions remain dormant but not extinguished, and arms inflows from the Sagaing region complicate enforcement.

Way forward / Conclusion:

Sustain tri-partite political dialogue with ethnic groups, frame a refugee-protection framework, complete border fencing with managed corridors, and roll back AFSPA district-by-district under MHA by 2027 with Mizo Accord 1986 as the conflict-resolution template.