Why in news?
Global churn and a weakening post-war order have revived debate on whether middle powers like India can stabilise the world.
UPSC Relevance
Prelims: International groupings (MIKTA, IBSA, BRICS, G20, Quad, IMEC, INSTC).
Mains: GS2 – Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India; Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.
What is a Middle Power?
A middle power is a state that is not a superpower or a great power, but still has enough economic, diplomatic and military weight to influence global affairs. It cannot set the rules of the international system alone, but it is no longer a mere rule-taker either. The idea is old – the Italian thinker Giovanni Botero wrote about ‘mezzano’ states in the 16th century – but it became popular after World War II, when Canada argued that countries which contributed to the war effort deserved a say in the new UN system. Middle powers prefer multilateralism, compromise, mediation and ‘good international citizenship’. Scholars described them as catalysts, facilitators and managers in diplomacy.
Key features
- Regional weight – strong presence in its own neighbourhood.
- Global reach without dominance – diplomatic networks and economic links that extend beyond the region.
- Strategic autonomy – enough room to follow an independent foreign policy rather than be locked into one camp.
- Influence through coalitions, not coercion – agenda-setting, bridge-building and issue-based partnerships.
- Niche diplomacy – focusing on chosen issues. E.g., Canada led the Ottawa Treaty banning landmines (1997); Australia formed the Cairns Group of farm exporters (1986) in trade talks.
Traditional vs Emerging Middle Powers
| Basis | Traditional middle powers | Emerging middle powers |
|---|---|---|
| Examples | Canada, Australia, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden | India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Türkiye, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, UAE |
| Relation to the order | Mostly supporters of the US-led liberal order | Want the order reformed to reflect new power realities |
| Alignment | Usually allied with the West | Multi-aligned; deal with all sides |
| Main concerns | Peacekeeping, human rights, arms control | Development, climate justice, fair trade, technology access, reform of UN/IMF/WB |
| Regional role | Limited regional dominance | Often the leading power in their region |
Note: France and the UK are sometimes called ‘former great powers acting as middle powers’ today. Groupings like MIKTA (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Türkiye, Australia – formed in 2013 on the sidelines of the UNGA) and IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa – Brasilia Declaration, 2003) are formal platforms of middle powers.
Why Middle Powers Matter in International Relations
- Bridge-builders – they can talk to the West and the Global South at the same time, which neither superpowers nor small states can do easily.
- Stabilisers – when great powers clash, middle powers keep cooperation alive on trade, health, climate and finance.
- Mediators – they are often trusted more than great powers. E.g., Türkiye and the UN brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative (2022); Qatar has hosted talks on Afghanistan and Gaza.
- Norm-shapers – they push new rules in areas like digital governance, climate finance and health security.
- Voice of the Global South – they carry the concerns of developing countries into forums dominated by rich nations.
Why are Middle Powers Rising Now?
- Erosion of great-power consensus – the US is rethinking its global commitments, while China and Russia are more assertive. No single power offers uncontested leadership any more.
- Paralysis of multilateral bodies – the UN Security Council still mirrors 1945; vetoes have blocked action on Ukraine and Gaza. The WTO’s Appellate Body has been non-functional since 2019.
- Fragmented supply chains – the ‘China plus one’ shift, de-risking and friend-shoring have raised the value of countries like India, Vietnam, Mexico and Indonesia.
- Shift of economic weight – emerging economies now account for a growing share of global growth, giving them a stronger claim to a seat at the table.
- Multipolarity – the world is no longer bipolar (Cold War) or unipolar (1990s). Power is spread across many centres, creating space to act.
- Issue-based minilaterals – small, flexible groupings (Quad, I2U2, IMEC) are replacing slow, large forums, and middle powers are natural members.
- Political signals – in Davos (January 2026), Canadian PM Mark Carney called on middle powers to act together; EAM S. Jaishankar has also spoken on the theme.
India as a Middle Power – Evidence and Debate
What India brings
- Economic weight – among the world’s top five economies and the fastest-growing major economy in recent years.
- Demography and talent – the most populous country with a large skilled workforce.
- Military and nuclear capability – one of the largest armed forces and a responsible nuclear record (no-first-use doctrine).
- Digital public infrastructure – UPI, Aadhaar and CoWIN are offered as global public goods.
- Civilisational and diplomatic legacy – from NAM to today’s ‘Vishwa Bandhu’ outreach.
India’s middle power diplomacy in action
- G20 Presidency (2023) – African Union became a permanent member; consensus on the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration despite the Ukraine split.
- Voice of Global South Summits – first held in January 2023, giving developing countries a platform.
- Multi-alignment – India is in the Quad with the US, Japan and Australia, and also in BRICS and the SCO with China and Russia.
- Connectivity – IMEC (announced at the G20, 2023) and INSTC (India-Iran-Russia, agreement of 2000).
- Global initiatives – International Solar Alliance (2015), Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (2019), Vaccine Maitri during COVID-19.
The debate – is India a middle power or more?
Many in India are uneasy with the label. Jaishankar has spoken of India wanting to be a ‘leading power’ rather than just a balancing power. Critics of the label argue that India’s size and potential make it a great power in the making. Others say that in today’s capabilities India still behaves like a middle power – it shapes outcomes through coalitions, not by dictating terms. The fair view is that India is a ‘middle power with great power aspirations’.
Challenges and Limits
- Vulnerability to shocks – middle powers are more exposed to economic shocks, sanctions and tariff wars than superpowers.
- No common agenda – they differ among themselves. Brazil or Indonesia may see China as an economic engine, while India sees it through the lens of the unsettled border.
- Capacity gaps – limited diplomatic staff, defence budgets and development finance compared to China or the US. India’s foreign service is small for a country of its size.
- Great-power pressure – they are often forced to pick sides (e.g., pressure on India over Russian oil and tariffs).
- Domestic constraints – poverty, inequality and internal issues limit how much they can invest abroad.
- Institutional resistance – the P5 are unwilling to dilute their privileges; UNSC reform has been stuck for decades.
Way Forward
- Issue-based coalitions – build flexible partnerships on climate, digital rules, critical minerals and health instead of rigid blocs.
- Push institutional reform – UNSC expansion, IMF quota reform and stronger MDBs, while protecting institutions that protect weaker states.
- Middle-power cooperation – link IBSA, MIKTA and like-minded states on common goals such as WTO revival.
- Offer global public goods – DPI, vaccines, solar and disaster resilience give credibility beyond rhetoric.
- Strengthen home base – economic growth, manufacturing, defence self-reliance and a larger diplomatic corps.
- Bridge, don’t divide – act as moderators and innovators – stabilisers in a world where stability is scarce.
Conclusion: Middle powers will not replace great powers. But in a fragmenting world, their ability to mediate, convene and innovate gives them real influence. For India, the middle power moment is a chance to shape a more representative order while building the strength to become a leading power.
Practice MCQ
Q1. Consider the following countries:
- Mexico
- Indonesia
- India
- Türkiye
- Australia
How many of the above are members of MIKTA?
(a) Only two (b) Only three (c) Only four (d) All five
Answer: (c). MIKTA has Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Türkiye and Australia. India is not a member; it is part of IBSA with Brazil and South Africa.
Q2. Consider the following statements:
Statement-I: The African Union was made a permanent member of the G20 during India’s Presidency in 2023.
Statement-II: The G20 has a permanent secretariat that decides on the admission of new members.
Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?
(a) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II explains Statement-I
(b) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct, but Statement-II does not explain Statement-I
(c) Statement-I is correct, but Statement-II is incorrect
(d) Statement-I is incorrect, but Statement-II is correct
Answer: (c). The AU joined at the New Delhi Summit (2023). The G20 has no permanent secretariat; it works through a rotating Presidency and the ‘Troika’ (past, present and next Presidency), and decisions are taken by consensus.
Mains Practice Question
“A weakening global order has opened space for middle powers to act as stabilisers of international cooperation.” Discuss the factors behind the rise of middle powers and examine whether India should see itself as a middle power or a leading power. (15 Marks, 250 words)
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