Quantum technology is the next sovereignty

In February 2025, Microsoft announced Majorana 1, a topological-qubit chip that the company claimed represented a path to one million qubits on a single processor. In December 2024, Google's Willow chip demonstrated quantum error correction below threshold for the first time. IBM's Heron processor, IIT Bombay's experimental superconducting qubits, China's Jiuzhang photonic computer — the global quantum race is no longer a question of whether but of when, and the when is shorter than most policy timetables had assumed. India's National Quantum Mission, approved on 19 April 2023, commits 6,003 crore rupees over eight years to building sovereign quantum capability. Quantum computing will not just break current encryption; it will rewrite the perimeter of national sovereignty over data, defence, finance and pharmaceuticals. Nations that arrive late will be unfree by default. Quantum technology is the next sovereignty.

What changes with quantum is mathematical and concrete. Peter Shor's algorithm of 1994 demonstrated that a sufficiently large quantum computer could break RSA encryption — the foundation of most current internet security — in polynomial time, where classical computers require exponential time. Grover's algorithm of 1996 offers a quadratic speedup on unstructured search problems. Quantum sensing enables submarine detection without sonar, gravity mapping of underground structures, and atomic-clock precision navigation independent of GPS. Quantum simulation models chemical reactions and material properties at scales classical computers cannot reach, accelerating drug discovery, battery design and materials engineering. The National Institute of Standards and Technology of the United States finalised Post-Quantum Cryptography standards (FIPS 203, 204 and 205) in August 2024 — the first standardised replacements for RSA-era encryption. ML-KEM for key encapsulation and ML-DSA for digital signatures form the new baseline algorithms.

India's stance has moved from aspiration to architecture. The National Quantum Mission, approved by the Union Cabinet in April 2023, established four Thematic Hubs (T-Hubs): at the Indian Institute of Science Bengaluru for quantum computing, IIT Madras for quantum communication, IIT Bombay for quantum sensing and metrology, and IIT Delhi for quantum materials and devices. The mission targets intermediate-scale quantum computers of 50-100 qubits in five years, 1000 qubits in eight years; satellite-based quantum-key distribution over 2,000 kilometres; magnetometers and atomic clocks; and a domestic quantum-materials supply chain. Initial equipment grants of 730 crore rupees were disbursed in 2024. The Indian Space Research Organisation has begun ground-station preparation for satellite-quantum-key-distribution experiments. Domestic start-ups — QNu Labs in Bengaluru, BosonQ Psi in Bhilai, QPiAI — are building commercial quantum products. The Indian Army's Project Chakshu is developing quantum-secure communications for defence applications. The C-DOT's quantum communication research and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research's experimental work add depth to the ecosystem.

The sovereignty dimensions are layered. The 'harvest now, decrypt later' threat means adversaries can be collecting encrypted Indian government, financial and corporate communications today, with the intent to decrypt them once quantum capability matures. CERT-In published its Post-Quantum Cryptography migration roadmap in 2024, beginning with critical infrastructure sectors. The State Bank of India and the Reserve Bank of India launched a quantum-safe cryptography pilot in 2025, testing PQC algorithms in real banking traffic. The Defence Research and Development Organisation has been working on quantum-secure communications since 2021. The Unique Identification Authority of India's Aadhaar database, the Income Tax Department's transaction records, the Election Commission's electronic systems, the National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Centre's protected facilities — each will need PQC migration within the next decade. The cost of doing this badly is not theoretical; it is national.

Equally significant is the equity dimension: India will need an estimated 25,000 quantum-trained engineers and scientists by 2030, and the current pipeline produces a fraction of that. The National Mission's skilling component, executed through IISc, the IITs and the National Institute of Technology system, must accelerate dramatically. The Atal Tinkering Labs, the NIIT Foundation's quantum-curriculum pilots, and the international fellowships at the Perimeter Institute and the Max Planck Institutes for Indian students all contribute, but the scale must grow ten-fold over the next five years. Without trained workforce, even the best-funded mission becomes equipment without operators.

A counter-view deserves to be stated honestly. Critics argue that quantum is a 20-year horizon technology, that fault-tolerant quantum computers capable of breaking RSA are at least a decade away, and that India's scarce science-investment rupees should focus on near-term wins in artificial intelligence, semiconductors and biotechnology. The argument is partly correct on timeline but wrong on strategy. Post-Quantum Cryptography migration must begin a decade before the threat materialises, because cryptographic migration in a banking system, defence network or government database takes years to execute carefully. The NIST timeline explicitly assumes a migration window beginning now. Quantum communication and sensing are not 20-year horizons; they are operational today. And quantum-trained workforce, once started, takes ten to fifteen years to produce at scale. Strategic patience demands strategic preparation.

The international cooperation map is informative. The US CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 funds quantum alongside semiconductors. The EU Quantum Flagship began in 2018 with one billion euros. The UK National Quantum Strategy of 2023 commits 2.5 billion pounds. China's investment exceeds 15 billion dollars across the past decade, with operational satellite QKD (Micius, 2017) and the Jiuzhang processors. India's allocation is comparable on a per-capita basis to several European programmes but absolute investment must grow.

The ethical dimension cannot be deferred. Quantum capabilities will reshape not only encryption but also surveillance, biometrics, drug repurposing, and material weaponisation. The same quantum computer that accelerates antibiotic discovery can also accelerate development of biochemical agents. Quantum-AI combinations may amplify decision-making power in ways current governance frameworks have not contemplated. The republic that builds quantum capability without simultaneously building quantum ethics — export controls, dual-use review, public deliberation about applications — will inherit power without wisdom. The Wassenaar Arrangement on export controls and the upcoming international quantum-governance frameworks at the OECD and the UNCTAD will require Indian voice; absence from those tables is a sovereignty cost in itself.

Vikram Sarabhai's vision for the Indian Space Research Organisation, articulated in 1969, was that India should arrive in space technology not behind the world but with the world. The republic mostly fulfilled that aspiration: ISRO is today a peer in launch capability, planetary exploration and applications. The next Sarabhai-moment is quantum. To be sovereign in 2040 means to have built quantum capability — and its ethical guard-rails — in 2026. Sovereignty in the 21st century will not be measured only in borders or budgets, but in the depth of national capability in technologies that decide who can read whose messages, design which medicines, and detect which threats. Quantum is the new perimeter. India is building. The discipline now is to build faster, train wider, and decide more carefully.