A caste census could ground reservation in evidence or harden caste as a public category for another century. Critically analyse with reference to the Mandal Commission, Indra Sawhney and Census 2027.

Introduction:

The Union Cabinet approved caste enumeration in Census 2027 on 12 December 2025 at an outlay of ₹11,718.24 crore — the first full caste count since 1931. The question is whether this will ground reservation in evidence or harden caste as a public category for another century.

Case for evidence:

The Mandal Commission (1980) recommended 27 per cent OBC reservation extrapolating from a 1931 figure of 52 per cent; no fresh count has updated that estimate. Indra Sawhney v. Union of India (1992) set the 50 per cent ceiling and mandated periodic review of creamy layer norms. The SECC 2011 caste data were collected but never released.

Recent demand:

Maratha, Patidar and Jat agitations, the Bihar caste survey (October 2023) showing Yadavs at 14.27 per cent and EBCs at 36.01 per cent, and the sub-classification verdict in State of Punjab v. Davinder Singh (1 August 2024) all rest on the absence of current data. The 103rd Amendment's 10 per cent EWS quota added an income-based layer the 50 per cent ceiling did not anticipate.

Risks:

M.N. Srinivas warned that counting hardens identity; Tamil Nadu's 69 per cent reservation under the Ninth Schedule shows how political arithmetic can outrun graded outcomes. Without published methodology, classification chaos in Mandal-listed castes is likely.

Conclusion:

Andre Beteille's caution is decisive — measurement is not neutral. Whether the caste census delivers justice depends on whether it is used for graded outcomes or for electoral arithmetic.