India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed neighbours who have fought four wars (1947-48, 1965, 1971, 1999), share a 3,323 km border, and have not held a bilateral summit since 2015. The relationship since the Article 370 abrogation in August 2019 has been in strategic hibernation — no trade, no high commissioners at full rank, no cricket, and only minimum border functionality. The pattern is set by a few structural drivers and is hard to shift. For UPSC GS II, this is the textbook case on bilateral relations, terrorism, Indus Waters Treaty, and nuclear overhang.
Structural drivers
Two-Nation Theory
Pakistan was born of the claim that Hindus and Muslims could not share a state. India rejected that premise at the outset and continues to do so. This ideological gulf underpins the relationship.
Kashmir
Pakistan claims Muslim-majority Kashmir as a natural territory; India sees the Instrument of Accession (October 1947) as final. Parts of J&K are under Pakistani control (PoK, Gilgit-Baltistan) and China (Aksai Chin, Shaksgam Valley). The LoC was formalised by the Simla Agreement (1972).
Role of the Pakistan Army
The Pakistan Army is the most powerful institution in the country — controls foreign, nuclear and Kashmir policy. It benefits politically from tension with India. The ISI runs proxy networks — Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Hizbul Mujahideen — targeting India.
Nuclear overhang
Both went overtly nuclear in 1998. Pakistan's doctrine is first-use; India's is no-first-use. This has contained war but not sub-conventional conflict — terrorism, shelling, small strikes.
Terrorism as state policy
From Kashmir insurgency (1989) to Kargil (1999), Mumbai 26/11 (2008), Pathankot (2016), Uri (2016), Pulwama (2019) — Pakistan-based groups have struck India repeatedly. India's response has shifted from diplomatic protest to surgical strikes (2016) and the Balakot airstrike (February 2019).
External backing
Pakistan leveraged US support in the Cold War (frontline ally in Afghan jihad), and Chinese support ever since — defence supplies (JF-17, submarines), CPEC, UNSC blocking on terrorist listings.
Afghanistan
Pakistan sought strategic depth in Afghanistan through the Taliban. Since 2021, the relationship has soured — Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacks inside Pakistan and Pakistani airstrikes on Afghan territory are now routine.
Domestic politics and foreign policy
- Fractured politics — ongoing PTI-PML-PPP tussle; army-ISI schism.
- Economic crisis — IMF bailouts (25+ programmes in Pakistan's history); currency collapse; inflation spiralling.
- Baluchistan and KP insurgency — BLA and TTP attacks on CPEC assets and Chinese workers.
Recent issues
| Event | Year | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Uri attack + Surgical strikes | 2016 | SAARC summit cancelled |
| Pulwama attack | Feb 2019 | 40 CRPF personnel killed |
| Balakot airstrike | Feb 2019 | First IAF cross-border strike since 1971 |
| Article 370 abrogation | Aug 2019 | Pakistan downgrades ties, snaps trade |
| Kartarpur Corridor opens | Nov 2019 | One positive track |
| LoC ceasefire recommitment | Feb 2021 | DGMO-level restoration |
| SCO Summit, New Delhi | May 2023 | Pakistan FM attends, minimal engagement |
Kartarpur Corridor
The 4-km corridor from Dera Baba Nanak to Gurdwara Darbar Sahib Kartarpur — inaugurated November 2019 — allows visa-free access for Indian Sikh pilgrims. One of the few operational tracks.
Trade
Formal trade snapped in August 2019; most of the remaining India-Pakistan trade routes through Dubai or other third countries, raising costs. In 2023-24, Pakistan's business community publicly lobbied to resume Indian imports for food and medicine relief.
Talks
India's position: "terror and talks cannot go together." Back-channel NSA-level contact (Ajit Doval) has occurred; the February 2021 LoC ceasefire recommitment was one outcome.
Latest developments (2024-26)
- SCO Summit Islamabad (October 2024) — EAM S. Jaishankar attended, first India minister to Pakistan in nearly a decade; stayed strictly multilateral.
- PTI government instability — Imran Khan remained jailed; Shehbaz Sharif PM; Army Chief Asim Munir dominant.
- Pakistan's IMF package (USD 7 billion, 2024) conditional on reforms.
- G20 New Delhi (2023) — Pakistan not invited.
- Quad Summit Wilmington (2024) — Pakistan regular target of terror-financing references without being named.
- BRICS expansion (2024) — Pakistan not included.
- Israel-Hamas conflict — Pakistan vocal for Palestine; India balanced.
- Russia-Ukraine update — Pakistan kept quiet multilateral line.
- Red Sea crisis — Pakistan's Gwadar impact muted; Karachi port shipping rerouted.
- AI Action Summit Paris (2025) — both engaged separately; no bilateral overlap.
- Operation Sindhu Thakur style NEOs — conducted without Pakistan coordination.
- CPEC 2.0 announced during Shehbaz Sharif's Beijing visit (2024); India reiterated sovereignty objection over Gilgit-Baltistan route.
- Indus Waters Treaty — India sent formal notice for renegotiation (January 2023); dispute over Kishenganga and Ratle continues.
- Baluchistan insurgency intensified; Chinese workers repeatedly attacked.
Way forward
- Talks and terror don't mix — maintain the conditional stance.
- Keep Kartarpur-like tracks open — faith-based and humanitarian.
- International isolation — continue multilateral pressure on Pakistan's terror financing via FATF (Pakistan off grey list in October 2022 but under monitoring).
- Indus Waters Treaty — push for renegotiation reflecting climate and project realities.
- LoC management — sustain the 2021 ceasefire.
- Strategic patience — Pakistan's economic and political volatility may, over time, change calculus.
Proxy terrorism landscape
Pakistan-based terror networks targeting India include:
- Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) — responsible for Mumbai 26/11 (2008).
- Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) — responsible for Parliament attack (2001), Pathankot (2016), Pulwama (2019).
- Hizbul Mujahideen — Kashmir Valley operations.
- Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, Al-Badr.
- Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) — religious mobilisation.
India's domestic counter-measures include:
- National Investigation Agency (NIA) strengthened post-Mumbai.
- Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) amendments (2019).
- Technical intelligence expansion.
- Border fencing on LoC and IB.
- Surgical strikes doctrine post-Uri.
Wars and key agreements
| Event | Year | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| First Kashmir war | 1947-48 | UN-mediated ceasefire; LoC ancestor |
| Second India-Pakistan war | 1965 | Tashkent Declaration (1966) |
| Bangladesh Liberation War | 1971 | Creation of Bangladesh; Shimla Agreement (1972) |
| Kargil war | 1999 | Indian victory; after Lahore Declaration (1999) |
| Operation Parakram | 2001-02 | Mobilisation post-Parliament attack |
| Mumbai 26/11 | 2008 | LeT attack; 166 dead |
| Surgical strikes | 2016 | Response to Uri attack |
| Balakot airstrike | 2019 | Response to Pulwama; first cross-border air strike since 1971 |
Confidence-building measures
Some CBMs survive the freeze:
- Nuclear installations list exchange — annual, since 1992.
- Ceasefire recommitment (February 2021) along LoC.
- Kartarpur Corridor — operational since November 2019.
- Prisoner list exchange — bi-annual.
- Fishermen release — occasional.
Nuclear doctrine
- India: No First Use (NFU); massive retaliation; credible minimum deterrent.
- Pakistan: Full spectrum deterrence; tactical nuclear weapons (Nasr missile) to counter Indian conventional superiority.
- Stability-instability paradox — nuclear parity deters full war but enables sub-conventional conflict.
Domestic Pakistan economy
Pakistan’s repeated IMF programmes (25+ in history) reflect structural weaknesses — low tax-to-GDP, energy sector circular debt, balance of payments vulnerability. The 2024 USD 7 billion EFF programme depends on reforms Pakistan’s coalition governments struggle to implement.
UPSC Relevance
India-Pakistan is a GS II perennial — bilateral relations, effect of neighbourhood policies on India's interests. Prelims has asked about Simla Agreement, Tashkent, Lahore Declaration, LoC, IWT. Mains prompts focus on terrorism, nuclear stability, Article 370, and diplomatic posture.
Practice question (Mains): "India's Pakistan policy has shifted from dialogue-led engagement to conditional isolation." Examine this evolution with reference to post-2016 events. (250 words)
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